Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
